Tennis: two sets or three?

MediumProbability~4m

In a best-of-3-sets match between two players (no draws), is the match more likely to end in 2 sets or to go to 3 sets?

Show hints (2)+
  1. Write both probabilities in terms of p and q.
  2. Compare p2+q2p^2+q^2 with 2pq2pq.

Answer

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Two sets

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Asked at: Options Market-Making, ETF Market-Making

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