Pairs who swap hats

Five people check their hats and, at the end of the night, the hats are handed back in a uniformly random order (a random permutation). What is the expected number of pairs of people who exchange hats - that is, unordered pairs {i,j}\{i,j\} where ii gets jj's hat and jj gets ii's hat? Give a decimal to four places.

Show hints (2)+
  1. Put an indicator on each of the (52)\binom{5}{2} pairs; a swap needs both hats to align.
  2. One pair swaps with probability 1514=120\tfrac15\cdot\tfrac14=\tfrac1{20}; sum by linearity.

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Asked at: Timed Mental-Math & Sequences, Game-Based Aptitude

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