Paid only if the last roll wins

You roll a fair die three times. You are paid the value of the third roll in dollars, but only if it is strictly greater than both of the first two rolls; otherwise you get nothing. What is the expected payout? Give a decimal to two places.

Show hints (2)+
  1. Condition on the third roll cc: you're paid cc only if both earlier rolls are below cc.
  2. That has probability (c−16)2\left(\tfrac{c-1}{6}\right)^2, so sum c⋅16(c−16)2c \cdot \tfrac16 \left(\tfrac{c-1}{6}\right)^2.

Answer

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1.3 (± 0.01)

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