Fair odds on a parlay

Two independent events each have probability 25%. A parlay pays out only if both events occur. At fair odds, what is the profit (in dollars) on a winning $1 stake? Give the answer to the nearest dollar.

Show hints (2)+
  1. Multiply the independent probabilities first: 0.25×0.25=1/160.25\times 0.25 = 1/16.
  2. Fair total return is 1/p1/p; profit is that minus the $1 stake.

Answer

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15

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Asked at: Options Market-Making, ETF Market-Making

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