Chords that don't cross

Six points are placed uniformly at random on a circle, then split into three pairs and a chord is drawn for each pair. Assuming the three pairs are formed uniformly at random, what is the probability that none of the three chords intersect?

Show hints (2)+
  1. Positions don't matter - only the pairing does. There are 531=155\cdot3\cdot1=15 pairings of 66 points.
  2. Non-crossing pairings are Catalan-many: C3=5C_3=5, so the probability is 515=13\tfrac{5}{15}=\tfrac13.

Answer

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0.3333 (± 0.005)

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Asked at: Jane Street, Optiver

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