Four points on a semicircle

MediumProbability~6m

Four points are dropped independently and uniformly at random on the circumference of a circle. What is the probability that all four lie within some common semicircle? (to 3 decimals)

Show hints (2)+
  1. Anchor the semicircle to a "leader" point that has all the others clockwise within 180180^\circ — and argue the leader is unique.
  2. A fixed point is the leader with probability (1/2)3(1/2)^3; sum over the four disjoint leaders.

Answer

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0.5 (± 0.001)

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Asked at: Jane Street, Citadel

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