How many long cycles?

Let CnC_n be the number of cycles of length greater than nn in a uniformly random permutation of {1,2,,2n}\{1, 2, \dots, 2n\}. Compute limnE[Cn]\displaystyle\lim_{n \to \infty} \mathbb{E}[C_n].

Show hints (2)+
  1. In a random permutation of mm items, E[# cycles of length k]=1k\mathbb{E}[\#\text{ cycles of length }k]=\tfrac1k for kmk\le m.
  2. Sum over k=n+1,,2nk=n+1,\dots,2n: that's H2nHnln2H_{2n}-H_n\to\ln 2.

Answer

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0.6931 (± 0.005)

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Asked at: Jane Street, Two Sigma

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