Laplace's rule of succession
A coin of unknown bias (with a uniform prior on the heads-probability ) is flipped 4 times and lands heads every time. What is the probability the next flip is also heads? Give your answer as a decimal (to 2 decimals).
Show hints (2)+
- Integrate against its posterior (a Beta distribution) given all-heads.
- The rule of succession gives .
Answer
Reveal answer →Final answer
0.83 (± 0.01)
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