First HH on the tenth toss

A fair coin is tossed until two heads appear in a row (HHHH). What is the probability that this first happens on exactly the 1010th toss?

Show hints (2)+
  1. Stop at toss nn: tosses n−1,nn-1,n are HHHH, no earlier HHHH. Valid sequences number Fn−1F_{n-1}.
  2. P=Fn−1/2n\mathbb{P}=F_{n-1}/2^n; with F9=34F_9=34, that's 34/102434/1024.

Answer

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0.0332 (± 0.0005)

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