Expected value of the highest card

You draw four cards from a shuffled standard 5252-card deck. Card values are Ace =1= 1, 221010 face value, Jack =11= 11, Queen =12= 12, King =13= 13. What is the expected value of the highest card drawn? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

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  1. E[max]=v1P[maxv]E[\max]=\sum_{v\ge1}\mathbb{P}[\max\ge v], with P[maxv]=(4v4)/(524)\mathbb{P}[\max\le v]=\binom{4v}{4}/\binom{52}{4}.
  2. There are 44 cards per value; sum the tail probabilities for v=1..13v=1..13.

Answer

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10.95 (± 0.02)

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Asked at: Optiver, SIG

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