Cycles in a shuffle

A uniformly random permutation of {1,…,4}\{1,\dots,4\} is decomposed into cycles. What is the expected number of cycles? (to 3 decimals)

Show hints (2)+
  1. Expected cycles in S_n is the harmonic number H_n.
  2. H_4 = 1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + 1/4.

Answer

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2.083 (± 0.01)

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