The decreasing run of uniforms

Draw X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots independently from Uniform(0,1)\text{Uniform}(0,1). Let NN be the first index nn at which XnX_n is not the smallest of X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_n (i.e. the first time a draw fails to set a new minimum). Then X1>X2>⋯>XN−1X_1 > X_2 > \dots > X_{N-1}, and XN−1X_{N-1} is the smallest value seen before the run breaks. The value E[XN−1]\mathbb{E}[X_{N-1}] can be written as a+b ea + b\,e for integers a,ba, b (with ee Euler's number). Find a+ba + b.

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  1. Condition on the run length mm: the first mm draws are decreasing (density factor (1−x)m−1/(m−1)!(1-x)^{m-1}/(m-1)! given Xm=xX_m=x) and the (m+1)(m{+}1)th exceeds XmX_m (factor 1−x1-x).
  2. You'll reach ∑k1k!(1k+2−1k+3)\sum_k \frac{1}{k!}\big(\frac{1}{k+2}-\frac{1}{k+3}\big); evaluate the two pieces as ∫01xex dx\int_0^1 xe^x\,dx and ∫01x2ex dx\int_0^1 x^2 e^x\,dx.

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