Cars advancing to the end

Two cars occupy spaces 11 and 22 of a 44-space lot (spaces 33, 44 empty). Each minute, a car is eligible to advance one space if the space directly ahead is empty (before any moves that minute) and its current space number is <4< 4; each eligible car independently advances with probability 12\tfrac12. What is the expected number of minutes until the cars occupy spaces 33 and 44?

Show hints (2)+
  1. State = the two occupied spaces. A car advances only if the space ahead is empty and it's behind space 44.
  2. Solve es=1+P(ss)ese_s = 1 + \sum P(s\to s') e_{s'} over the few states; e(1,2)=20/3e_{(1,2)} = 20/3.

Answer

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6.6667 (± 0.001)

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Asked at: Jane Street, Two Sigma

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