Backing out a margin-free probability
A three-outcome market (home / draw / away) is quoted at decimal odds , , . The raw implied probabilities sum to more than 1 because the book carries a margin. Removing that margin proportionally (scale every implied probability by the same factor so they sum to 1), what is the fair, margin-free probability of the home outcome, to four decimals?
Show hints (2)+
- Raw sums above 1 - that sum is the factor to divide out.
- Fair probability of home .
Answer
Reveal answer →Final answer
0.3893 (± 0.001)
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