Backing out a margin-free probability

A three-outcome market (home / draw / away) is quoted at decimal odds 2.502.50, 3.403.40, 3.003.00. The raw implied probabilities sum to more than 1 because the book carries a margin. Removing that margin proportionally (scale every implied probability by the same factor so they sum to 1), what is the fair, margin-free probability of the home outcome, to four decimals?

Show hints (2)+
  1. Raw 1/odds1/\text{odds} sums above 1 - that sum is the factor to divide out.
  2. Fair probability of home =(1/2.50)/sum= (1/2.50) / \text{sum}.

Answer

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0.3893 (± 0.001)

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