At least one blue and one green

A box holds 66 marbles of distinct colors, among them one blue and one green. You draw a marble, note its color, and replace it - doing this 44 times. What is the probability that your four draws include at least one blue and at least one green?

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  1. Inclusion–exclusion on Bˉ\bar B (no blue) and Gˉ\bar G (no green): 1P[Bˉ]P[Gˉ]+P[BˉGˉ]1-\mathbb{P}[\bar B]-\mathbb{P}[\bar G]+\mathbb{P}[\bar B\cap\bar G].
  2. P[Bˉ]=P[Gˉ]=(5/6)4\mathbb{P}[\bar B]=\mathbb{P}[\bar G]=(5/6)^4, P[BˉGˉ]=(4/6)4\mathbb{P}[\bar B\cap\bar G]=(4/6)^4.

Answer

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0.233 (± 0.005)

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Asked at: Optiver, IMC

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