Best-of-seven underdog

In a best-of-seven series, the weaker team wins each independent game with probability p=0.45p=0.45. What is the probability it wins the series? (to 3 decimals)

Show hints (2)+
  1. Winning a best-of-7 = at least 4 wins in 7 games.
  2. Sum the binomial tail from k = 4 to 7.

Answer

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0.392 (± 0.01)

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