Amoeba extinction

An amoeba each generation, with equal probability 14\tfrac14 each, dies, stays as one, splits into two, or splits into three. Starting from one amoeba, what is the probability the lineage eventually dies out? (to 3 decimals)

Show hints (2)+
  1. Condition on the first generation's outcome.
  2. Solve the cubic; take the root in (0,1).

Answer

Reveal answer →

0.4142 (± 0.005)

Create a free account to see the full worked solution and track your progress.

Interview format: Market Maker, Hedge Fund Quant, Systematic & Data-Driven Trading

Related questions