Probability

Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

A method for counting a union of overlapping sets by alternately adding and subtracting intersections.

|A or B| = |A| + |B| - |A and B|, extending to more sets by adding singles, subtracting pairs, adding triples, and so on.

Try the complement first. Questions phrased "at least one" are almost always easier as 1 minus "none". The probability at least one of four dice shows a six is 1 - (5/6)^4, not a four-term expansion.

Where it stops being practical. Terms double with each set. Beyond three or four overlapping conditions the formula is correct and hopeless under time pressure - if you are writing the fourth level, you have missed a symmetry.

Full guide

The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

Counting overlapping sets without double-counting. The formula, the derangement application, and when a complement is faster.

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