Width of a market under uncertainty

You make a market on a quantity whose true value you estimate at 50 with a standard deviation of 4. Should your bid-ask be tight or wide, and why?

Show hints (2)+
  1. More uncertainty ⇒ more downside from being picked off.
  2. The spread is your buffer against adverse selection.

Answer

Reveal answer →

Wide - the spread compensates for the higher uncertainty and adverse-selection risk

Want the full step-by-step worked solution? It's part of Premium - along with a worked solution for every question in the bank.

Asked at: Probability & Market-Making, EV & Betting Games

Related questions