Bayes: did it rain?
It rains 10% of days. A forecaster is correct 80% of the time (on both rainy and dry days). The forecaster predicts rain. What's the probability it actually rains? Pick the closest.
Show hints (2)+
- Use Bayes' theorem.
- The 10% base rate matters a lot.
Answer
Reveal answer →Final answer
~31%
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