Trading & Markets

Relative Value

A trade betting that the price relationship between two related instruments will revert.

Unlike arbitrage, the relationship is statistical rather than mechanical, so there is residual risk.

The failure mode is that the relationship changes rather than reverting - and the position was sized as though it could not. Several well-known blow-ups follow exactly this pattern: a convergence trade treated as risk-free, leveraged accordingly, held through a divergence that never converged in time.

Statistical arbitrage is the diversified version: many small, weakly predictive relative-value bets whose idiosyncratic risks cancel, leaving the aggregate edge.

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Arbitrage and Relative Value

True arbitrage, statistical arbitrage, and why the textbook risk-free trade almost never exists in practice.

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