Mathematics

Recursion

Defining a quantity in terms of smaller instances of the same problem.

The dominant technique for expected-value questions: condition on the first step and, when the remainder is identical to the original, solve the resulting equation.

E = 1/2(1) + 1/2(1 + E) gives E = 2 for the expected flips to the first head - no series summed.

Where it goes wrong. If your equations come out inconsistent, the state is underspecified. For "expected flips to see HH", knowing only the count is insufficient; you also need whether the last flip was a head.

Identifying the right state is the same skill as in Markov chains and dynamic programming.

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Conditioning: The Law of Total Probability in Interviews

Split on the first step, solve the pieces, recombine. The single most reliable attack on a probability question you cannot see through.

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