Statistics

Fat Tails

Also known as: Heavy Tails, Leptokurtosis

A distribution with more probability of extreme outcomes than a normal distribution.

Financial returns are decisively fat-tailed. Daily moves that a normal model calls once-in-the-history-of-the-universe events happen every few years.

The practical consequence. Risk estimated from a normal assumption understates tail loss by orders of magnitude. This is not a small correction - it is the difference between a survivable and a fatal position.

Sources: volatility clustering mixes normals of different variances, and genuine jumps add more. Student's t is a common tractable alternative; extreme value theory handles the tail directly.

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